Leverkusen vs Arsenal: 'The Gunners' rarely get such luck!

The journey to conquer the Champions League has never been simple. However, considering the squad strength, current form, and especially the structure of the draw, Arsenal is facing one of the best opportunities in their history to advance directly to the final.

In this season's Champions League round of 16, Arsenal will face Bayer Leverkusen.

A deserved reward

On paper, this is one of the most "comfortable" opponents Arsenal could have drawn in the round of 16. However, many Arsenal fans believe this favorable draw is entirely a deserved reward for what the team has demonstrated since the start of the season. In the new format group stage of the Champions League, Arsenal displayed superior strength by winning all 8 matches. That achievement helped them top the group and benefit in the knockout draw seeding.

According to the new format, group winners have a higher chance of facing opponents with lower rankings. However, rankings do not always accurately reflect the true hierarchy of European football power. Unexpected results in the early stages can cause strong teams to drop to lower positions, or conversely, help average teams climb to higher rankings.

In Arsenal's case, this brings significant advantage. If they overcome Leverkusen, their next opponent in the quarter-finals is likely to be Sporting CP or Bodo/Glimt. Sporting performed very well in the early stages and deserved their Top 10 position, but in terms of experience and pedigree in the Champions League, they still cannot compare to giants like Real Madrid or PSG.

An example of the harshness of a Champions League draw is last season, when Liverpool, despite topping their group, still had to face PSG immediately in the round of 16, the team that later became champions. Compared to that case, Arsenal's journey this season is clearly much more favorable.

Nevertheless, challenges will certainly increase if Arsenal progress further. According to the projected draw path, their opponent in the semi-finals could be Barcelona. And if they reach the final match, Arsenal might have to face Bayern Munich.

Arsenal rarely gets such luck

Interestingly, despite being considered lucky this season, Arsenal has actually been one of the teams frequently facing tough opponents in the Champions League in the past.

To analyze the difficulty level of each journey in this competition, many experts use the ClubElo ranking system developed by Lars Schiefler. This system operates based on principles similar to chess rankings: A team gains more points when defeating strong opponents and fewer points when beating weaker teams.

Thanks to that calculation method, ClubElo is regarded as one of the reliable tools for assessing the actual strength of clubs. According to the current rankings, Arsenal is even ranked as the strongest team in the world.

However, historical data shows Arsenal rarely benefits from knockout stage draws. Since the Champions League introduced the round of 16 in the 2003-04 season, Arsenal has frequently faced opponents with very high Elo ratings.

Among teams that have played at least 10 matches in the Champions League round of 16, only PSG has faced opponents with an average strength higher than Arsenal's. This partly stems from Arsenal often finishing second in their group under the old group stage format, forcing them to face group winners right from the knockout stage.

A typical example is Arsenal facing Bayern Munich three times within just five seasons. Even in the 2016-17 season, when Arsenal finally topped their group, they were still drawn against Bayern. Therefore, many experts believe this season resembles a "compensation" for the misfortunes Arsenal endured in the past.

Conversely, the most difficult journey in the modern era belongs to Real Madrid in the 2021-22 season, when they successively defeated PSG, Chelsea, Man City, and Liverpool to win their 14th title. Compared to those harsh campaigns, Arsenal clearly has a significant advantage this season. According to probability models based on ClubElo, Arsenal currently has about a 32% chance of winning the Champions League, the highest among remaining teams. Second is Bayern Munich with about 12%.

Even if the two teams swapped positions in the draw path, Arsenal's championship chance would drop to about 26%, while Bayern's would increase to nearly 17%. This shows landing in a favorable draw path can greatly impact the likelihood of winning the title.